Short Term Consequences
Cuban Missile Crisis
Had the Cuban Revolution not occurred Cuba would not have been a select target for Russia to place its near range nuclear arsenals. As the United States had access to long range missiles at home, and medium range missiles placed in Turkey, the Russian government felt immensely pressured to be prepared in case a nuclear conflict occurred. Fidel Castro, the leader placed after the Cuban Revolution secretly agreed to host nuclear missiles while Russia was developing long range missile capabilities (Curtis). A 13-day public and international unrest resulted after an U.S. U-2 aircraft confirmed that Russia was planning to host nuclear missiles (Cuban). The U.S. placed a blockade in an attempt to prevent Russia from successfully transporting and weapons (Cuban). The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest countries were willing to confront each other in nuclear conflicts. President John F. Kennedy with U.N. Secretary General-General U Thant, and Nikita Khrushchev, during the tensest time of the Cold War, publicly announced an agreement between the two countries (Cuban). The Soviet Union would have to dismantle and return all Soviet placed offensive weapons back to Russia (Cuban). Whereas the United States would agree to never invade Cuba, and secretly agreed to dismantle its Jupiter IRBMs, the world’s first medium range ballistic missiles from Italy and Turkey (Cuban). Due to the intensity and possible consequences that could occur M.A.D. or Mutually Assured Destruction was first discussed as a way to relieve international tensions (Curtis). M.A.D. is a theory that in a conflict when both countries have the capabilities to completely annihilate their opposers with Weapons of Mass Destruction, neither country would strike the other in fear of their own destructions. This realist theory is very prevalent today as it is often regarded as a reason certain countries wish to attain nuclear weapon capabilities, such as Iran. The gravity of the situation also resulted in a direct telephone link between the leaders of the United States and Russia. During the conflict Chinese media supported the Soviet Union whereas West Germany supported the United States (Curtis). After the conflict Cuban relations with Russia deteriorated because all negotiations after the United States confirmed the transport of offensive weapons, Castro was not involved in any of the discussions (Cuban). Without the Cuban revolution the conception of using nuclear arsenals as deterrence, the removal of U.S. weapons in Turkey and Italy, the realization of the necessity of greater communication between nations, protection of Cuba from U.S. invasion, and the understanding of the gravity of nuclear war would have never occurred.
(Vandenbroucke)
Bay of Pigs Invasion
Shortly after the Cuban revolution, Fidel Castro and his regime began gradually nationalizing the foreign companies who owned a large percentage of Cuba’s land, oil refineries, factories, and other resources (Cuban History). Sensing a turn towards communism and alignment with the Soviet Union, the United States, under president Eisenhower, began making plans to invade Cuba (Vandenbroucke). 2 years after the revolution, a group of counterrevolutionary Cubans trained and supported by the US landed at the Bay of Pigs in one of the biggest failures in Foreign Policy in america’s history (Vandenbroucke). Immediately there was backlash from the world community. Up until the invasion, many neutral countries had been becoming increasingly friendly to the United States (Vandenbroucke). However, the attack was a “direct violation of Article 2 and Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, as well as Articles 18 and 25 of the Charter of the Organization of American States, and Article 1 of the Rio Treaty.” (Cuban). This fact, combined with the fact that Kennedy initially attempted to convince the public that the US was not involved, had many Foreign Policy effects. First, it decreased the legitimacy of any treaties that the US signed, particularly with relation to nonaligned nations. This lack of trust between the US and third world countries was very important during the cold war, as the US and the USSR were both trying to gain as many allies in as many regions as possible, and any sign that the US would not honor international agreements surely pushed some neutral countries to the side of the USSR. Second, the fact that the United States was seen to fail so completely was another reason for nonaligned nations to choose the USSR. The US was seen as weak and stupid, decreasing their influence on nations around them. Last, seeing that a small revolutionary socialist nation like Cuba could so summarily defeat the US, even if the actual fighters were proxies, fueled revolutionary efforts elsewhere in the world (Hoover).
In our alternate history, because the weak, US-loving Batista regime continued to be in power, the Bay of Pigs invasion never happened. Importantly, all of the effects of the embarrassment already mentioned wouldn’t have happened, and the US would still be received favorably by the nonaligned nations. Instead of many countries choosing a careful USSR over a clumsy and lying US, many countries would instead see the US as a symbol of the benefits of capitalism, not imperialism, and be more inclined to join the side of the West. This would have little long-term effects on the Cold War, but the momentary support for the West would be much higher than after the catastrophe of the Bay of Pigs.
Had the Cuban Revolution not occurred Cuba would not have been a select target for Russia to place its near range nuclear arsenals. As the United States had access to long range missiles at home, and medium range missiles placed in Turkey, the Russian government felt immensely pressured to be prepared in case a nuclear conflict occurred. Fidel Castro, the leader placed after the Cuban Revolution secretly agreed to host nuclear missiles while Russia was developing long range missile capabilities (Curtis). A 13-day public and international unrest resulted after an U.S. U-2 aircraft confirmed that Russia was planning to host nuclear missiles (Cuban). The U.S. placed a blockade in an attempt to prevent Russia from successfully transporting and weapons (Cuban). The Cuban Missile Crisis was the closest countries were willing to confront each other in nuclear conflicts. President John F. Kennedy with U.N. Secretary General-General U Thant, and Nikita Khrushchev, during the tensest time of the Cold War, publicly announced an agreement between the two countries (Cuban). The Soviet Union would have to dismantle and return all Soviet placed offensive weapons back to Russia (Cuban). Whereas the United States would agree to never invade Cuba, and secretly agreed to dismantle its Jupiter IRBMs, the world’s first medium range ballistic missiles from Italy and Turkey (Cuban). Due to the intensity and possible consequences that could occur M.A.D. or Mutually Assured Destruction was first discussed as a way to relieve international tensions (Curtis). M.A.D. is a theory that in a conflict when both countries have the capabilities to completely annihilate their opposers with Weapons of Mass Destruction, neither country would strike the other in fear of their own destructions. This realist theory is very prevalent today as it is often regarded as a reason certain countries wish to attain nuclear weapon capabilities, such as Iran. The gravity of the situation also resulted in a direct telephone link between the leaders of the United States and Russia. During the conflict Chinese media supported the Soviet Union whereas West Germany supported the United States (Curtis). After the conflict Cuban relations with Russia deteriorated because all negotiations after the United States confirmed the transport of offensive weapons, Castro was not involved in any of the discussions (Cuban). Without the Cuban revolution the conception of using nuclear arsenals as deterrence, the removal of U.S. weapons in Turkey and Italy, the realization of the necessity of greater communication between nations, protection of Cuba from U.S. invasion, and the understanding of the gravity of nuclear war would have never occurred.
(Vandenbroucke)
Bay of Pigs Invasion
Shortly after the Cuban revolution, Fidel Castro and his regime began gradually nationalizing the foreign companies who owned a large percentage of Cuba’s land, oil refineries, factories, and other resources (Cuban History). Sensing a turn towards communism and alignment with the Soviet Union, the United States, under president Eisenhower, began making plans to invade Cuba (Vandenbroucke). 2 years after the revolution, a group of counterrevolutionary Cubans trained and supported by the US landed at the Bay of Pigs in one of the biggest failures in Foreign Policy in america’s history (Vandenbroucke). Immediately there was backlash from the world community. Up until the invasion, many neutral countries had been becoming increasingly friendly to the United States (Vandenbroucke). However, the attack was a “direct violation of Article 2 and Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, as well as Articles 18 and 25 of the Charter of the Organization of American States, and Article 1 of the Rio Treaty.” (Cuban). This fact, combined with the fact that Kennedy initially attempted to convince the public that the US was not involved, had many Foreign Policy effects. First, it decreased the legitimacy of any treaties that the US signed, particularly with relation to nonaligned nations. This lack of trust between the US and third world countries was very important during the cold war, as the US and the USSR were both trying to gain as many allies in as many regions as possible, and any sign that the US would not honor international agreements surely pushed some neutral countries to the side of the USSR. Second, the fact that the United States was seen to fail so completely was another reason for nonaligned nations to choose the USSR. The US was seen as weak and stupid, decreasing their influence on nations around them. Last, seeing that a small revolutionary socialist nation like Cuba could so summarily defeat the US, even if the actual fighters were proxies, fueled revolutionary efforts elsewhere in the world (Hoover).
In our alternate history, because the weak, US-loving Batista regime continued to be in power, the Bay of Pigs invasion never happened. Importantly, all of the effects of the embarrassment already mentioned wouldn’t have happened, and the US would still be received favorably by the nonaligned nations. Instead of many countries choosing a careful USSR over a clumsy and lying US, many countries would instead see the US as a symbol of the benefits of capitalism, not imperialism, and be more inclined to join the side of the West. This would have little long-term effects on the Cold War, but the momentary support for the West would be much higher than after the catastrophe of the Bay of Pigs.